On ρ in a Decision-Theoretic Apparatus of Dempster-Shafer Theory

Thomas M. Strat has developed a decision-theoretic apparatus for Dempster-Shafer theory (Decision analysis using belief functions, Intern. J. Approx. Reason. 4(5/6), 391417, 1990). In this apparatus, expected utility intervals are constructed for different choices. The choice with the highest expected utility is preferable to others. However, to find the preferred choice when the expected utility interval of one choice is included in that of another, it is necessary to interpolate a discerning point in the intervals. This is done by the parameter ρ, defined as the probability that the ambiguity about the utility of every nonsingleton focal element will turn out as favorable as possible. If there are several different decision makers, we might sometimes be more interested in having the highest expected utility among the decision makers rather than only trying to maximize our own expected utility regardless of choices made by other decision makers. The preference of each choice is then determined by the probability of yielding the highest expected utility. This probability is equal to the maximal interval length of ρ under which an alternative is preferred. We must here take into account not only the choices already made by other decision makers but also the rational choices we can assume to be made by later decision makers. In Strats apparatus, an assumption, unwarranted by the evidence at hand, has to be made about the value of ρ. We demonstrate that no such assumption is necessary. It is sufficient to assume a uniform probability distribution for ρ to be able to discern the most preferable choice. We discuss when this approach is justifiable. Address correspondence to Johan Schubert, Division of Information System Technology, Department of Command and Control Warfare Technology, National Defence Research Establishment, S-172 90 Stockholm, Sweden. Received March 1993; accepted May 1995. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 1995; 13:185-200  1995 Elsevier Science Inc. 0888-613X /95 /$9.50 655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010 SSDI 0888-613X(95)00061-K